BANGKOK (AP) — Two years after the military seized power from the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s prospects for peace, let alone a return to democracy, appear bleaker than ever, experts say. The military regime has heeded the call of protest organizers to show their strength and solidarity by staying home in what they called a “silent strike”. The opposition’s general strike coordinating body, set up shortly after taking over in 2021, urged people to stay at home or at work from 10am to 3pm. Photos posted on social media showed the usually bustling streets of Yangon, the country’s largest city. Downtown streets were deserted, with only a few cars on the road, and similar scenes were reported elsewhere. Small peaceful protests are happening almost daily across the country, but on the anniversary of the military seizure of power on February 1, 2021, two things stand out: the extent of the civil war is understood; General. The violence extends beyond rural battlefields where the army has burned and bombed villages, displacing hundreds of thousands of people in a largely ignored humanitarian crisis. It also happened in cities, where militants were captured and tortured, and urban guerrillas retaliated by bombing and assassinating targets linked to the military. The military also executed activists accused of “terrorism” following closed trials. Since the army took over, 2,940 civilians have been killed by authorities and another 17,572 arrested, 13,763 of whom remain in custody, according to the independent Political Prisoners Aid Association, a watchdog group that tracks killings and arrests. The actual death toll is likely much higher because the group typically does not include those on the junta’s side and cases in remote areas cannot be easily verified. “The level of violence involving armed combatants and civilians is shocking and unexpected,” said Min Zaw Oo, a veteran political activist in exile who founded the Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security Research. “The scale of the killing and harm to civilians is devastating and unlike anything we’ve seen in this country in recent memory,” he said. When the army ousted Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, it arrested her and a senior member of her governing National League for Democracy party, which overwhelmingly re-elected for a second term in the November 2020 general election. The military’s claim that it acted because of massive electoral fraud was not supported by objective election observers. Aung San Suu Kyi, 77, is serving a total of 33 years in prison after being convicted in a series of political smear charges brought by the military. Soon after the military seized power and crushed nonviolent protests with deadly force, thousands of young people slipped into remote rural areas to become guerrilla fighters. Operating in the scattered “People’s Defense Forces” or PDFs, they proved effective fighters, adept at ambushes, and occasionally went beyond isolation to assume military and police duties. They have benefited from supplies and training from some of the country’s minority rebels, the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), who have been fighting the military for decades for greater autonomy. “It’s not just a very brave thing to do. It’s a very difficult thing to do,” Richard Horsey, an independent analyst and consultant with the International Crisis Group, told The Associated Press. The insurgent war basically It’s their entire existence.” David Mattison, another independent analyst with more than 20 years of experience in Myanmar, said the rebels’ combat capabilities were “a mixed bag in terms of battlefield performance, organization and unity among them.” But equally It’s important to keep two years in mind because no one predicted they would actually be as effective as they are now. The PDF has been fighting the Burmese militarily in some areas, and in many ways, defeating them on the battlefield in terms of ambushes and pitched battles, taking over bases. Over a large swath of territory, but fought back and emerged victorious. “So no one is winning at the moment,” Mattison said. General Min Aung Hlaing’s junta has advantages — not just in terms of weapons and well-trained manpower, but also in terms of geography. Burma’s main neighbors – Thailand, China and India – have geopolitical and economic interests in Burma, which makes them happy with the status quo, which goes a long way toward ensuring that its borders do not become hostile to resistance weapons and other supplies main supply routes. While most of the world has sanctions against the generals and their governments, they can rely on weapons from Russia and China. Min Aung Hlaing’s government is also nominally seeking political solutions to the crisis it has created, most notably by promising new elections this year. Aung San Suu Kyi’s party has refused to take part, deriding the polls as neither free nor fair, and other activists are taking more direct action, attacking the junta’s team conducting surveys to compile voter rolls. The opposition has vowed to go off the rails,” said Min Zaw Oo. “The election will not change the political status quo; on the contrary, it will intensify the violence. The “planned polls” are being conducted by a regime that is overthrowing the democratically elected government. The Burmese people clearly see them for what they are: a cynical effort to rewrite previous election results that gave Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy a landslide victory, so these elections were not Any election that makes sense,” Horsey said. “They have no legitimacy or credibility. The harshest response was to not invite Myanmar’s top military leader to the meeting. Myanmar’s military junta rejects nearly all peacemaking efforts, viewing them as interference in its internal affairs. In contrast, the Resistance Movement actively seeks international support. It scored a new small diplomatic victory on Tuesday as the United States, Australia, Britain and Canada announced new sanctions aimed at squeezing revenue and supply lines for the military. The U.K. and Canadian sanctions are particularly noteworthy because they target aviation fuel supplies, a move that activists have been calling for in response to growing threats in the U.S. by pro-democracy forces and their allies in minority rebel groups. air strikes. “At the moment, both sides are not ready to seek a political solution,” Min Zaw Oo warned. “Despite more deaths and violence, there will be no major shift in military stalemate this year.”
2 years later, the Burmese Resistance Army stands firm against military rule
