Adam Schiff unlikely to be last major Democrat to enter California U.S. Senate race

Few members of the U.S. House of Representatives have grabbed more headlines during Donald Trump’s presidency than Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif. Schiff played a leading role in Trump’s first impeachment trial and served as the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, making him a hero to many liberals and a villain to many conservatives. Now, Schiff hopes to use his notoriety and accomplishments to gain a promotion: On Thursday, he announced his bid for the safe Democratic Senate seat in California, which has been held by Sen. Dianne Feinstein since 1992.

While Feinstein has yet to announce her own plans, the possibility that the 89-year-old may retire almost guarantees that Schiff won’t be the only Democrat hoping to win a solid blue seat. Rep. Katie Porter announced her own bid earlier this month, and the number of contenders is likely only to grow: Rep. Barbara Lee is reportedly planning to run, and Rep. Ro Khanna has also publicly expressed interest. We’re not normally interested in a federal race in a strongly blue state with an undeclared incumbent and a small field (for now), but California’s developing Senate race has many wrinkles that will make it very interesting , from major structures and the impact of race on national geographic and ideological divides.

First, the California primary is set to make the Senate race Can It comes down to two Democrats. Dating back to 2012, all candidates in California, regardless of party affiliation, ran on the same ballot, with the top two winners advancing to the general election. We don’t yet know how many credible candidates will run from either side, but that could affect who advances to the November 2024 election. Historically, the most likely outcome is that one of these Democrats will meet a Republican in the general election, but that’s not a given: California has had three statewide primaries in the past decade. Send a pair of Democrats to the general election. Two of those were Senate races: in 2016, between incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris (then California attorney general) and Rep. Loretta Sanchez (Harris won the general), and in 2018, between Feinstein and then-California attorney general. State Senator Kevin DeLeon Senior (Feinstein won).

In 2024, some strong Democratic candidates could split the Democratic-leaning vote, just as likely to split the Republican-leaning vote. Over the past decade, Democratic candidates have won an average of 57% of the top two votes in statewide primaries, compared to 36% for Republicans, so you can have several Democratic candidates win Democrats The vast majority of votes in the primaries did end up above a split field of Republican contenders. De Leon won the 2018 general election with just 12 percent of the vote, a sign of the lowest margin among the second-place candidates in the state’s top two primaries.

Another undoubtedly important factor is campaign financing. Buying TV ads isn’t a panacea in our digital age, but it’s expensive in California, which has the second-largest (Los Angeles), 10th-largest (Bay Area) and 20th-largest (Sacramento) in the country, according to Nielsen TV market. Not to mention, California is a huge state both in population and geography, so running a statewide campaign won’t be cheap.

This is an area of ​​Schiff’s early strengths: With more than $20 million in his federal campaign account by the end of the 2022 election, thanks to his star power and an easy re-election campaign in his dark blue seat, But he wasn’t asked to spend most of his campaign war chest.

That’s not to say Schiff’s opponents—both overt and potential—couldn’t raise money. Porter has brought in more than $25 million to her re-election campaign, second only to incumbent Speaker Kevin McCarthy among House candidates for the 2022 cycle. But unlike Schiff, Porter had to spend $28 million to narrowly win her hotly contested district last November. In Khanna’s case, he hasn’t raised that much money, but he represents much of Silicon Valley, America’s tech hub and source of vast wealth. Lee may struggle to compete in fundraising, but she’s well-known in progressive circles and may be the only prominent black candidate in the race.

Of course, ideological differences will also play a role in this game. Porter, Connor and Lee are members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, while Schiff is a member of the more centrist New Democratic Alliance. That’s largely reflected in the voting record: Schiff falls mostly in the middle of the House Democratic caucus, while Conner and Lee both sit conspicuously on the left. Porter, though, is harder to pin down. Her sharp questioning of corporate executives at congressional hearings has attracted a lot of attention (and donations), and she’s campaigning as a progressive. But that image belies a rather moderate voting record that may illustrate the reality of representing a contested district — a challenge none of the other three House members have faced. In theory, the three progressives could split more left-leaning votes equally in the primary, improving Schiff’s chances of advancing to the general election.What’s more, California Democrats may dominate, but they don’t necessarily That progressive, which means that Schiff may be serving a larger portion of the electorate to begin with.

Another issue is California’s north-south split in Democratic circles, with populations in the north concentrated around the Bay Area and populations in the south around Los Angeles. Political office statewide in California has been dominated in recent years by Northern Democrats, including Feinstein, longtime former Sen. Barbara Boxer, Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Gov. Jerry Brown and former Senator Harris. In this north-south dichotomy, Schiff and Porter both represent parts of greater Los Angeles, while Lee and Canner represent the Bay Area, so whether the two northerners run could have an impact on the outcome of the primary. After all, a candidate’s tendency to win votes from “friends and neighbors” in their district remains a factor in primaries.

But the Democratic advantage in Northern California may be fading, which could favor either Schiff or Porter. After Harris became vice president, Newsom named Sen. Alex Padilla — a former California secretary of state and Angeleno native — who wins a full term in 2022. If you look at the primary voting trajectory in California, Southern California recently voted in the top two primaries, with Democrats taking a larger percentage of the vote. That hasn’t yet delivered huge benefits to statewide candidates from the South, but it could affect the 2024 primary.

At this point, there are more questions than answers about the status of California’s highly anticipated 2024 Senate race. But over the next few months, we’ll be keeping a close eye on key aspects of the game.