Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) plans to run for re-election, he said, but Democrats are holding their breath waiting for Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) to decide them Whether to stay in red states for re-election campaigns, where they’ve shown amazing staying power.The suspense comes as national Democrats face the question of whether they will support newly independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema if she runs for re-election in Arizona, or drop theirs Her likely Democratic challenger, Rep. Ruben Gallego, announced her candidacy earlier this week.
“It is my devout and fervent hope that they will run,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Connecticut Democrat, adding that he had been encouraging Manchin and Tester to stay. “There’s no question that they’re in a really challenging position in a tough political environment.”
Both said this week they were still weighing their decisions.
“Honestly, people want me to come home,” Tester said, adding that he would make a decision in the first half of the year. “But they want me here too. So we’ll figure it out.”
One factor Democrats are aware of is that Tester’s long commute to his farm in Montana is weighing on him. “You can’t win an election on your own, you have to have a family that stands behind you,” Tester said.
Manchin said Monday he had no timetable for a decision. “I was not persecuted in West Virginia,” he said.
Democrats attribute their stunning midterm success last year in part to their Senate incumbents running for re-election, while many Republicans have decided to retire. Retirement of Republican senators in Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina in 2022 leads to a more contested race than Republicans would like, and a Democratic takeover in a midterm election year that in the past has often left the Parties that lose power benefit.
“It’s a decision of what they want to do, but obviously, I want all of our incumbents to run for re-election, and I’m happy to make sure they get re-elected,” said Sen. Gary Peters, D-Michigan. Chairman of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee. “If our incumbents run, we will have a majority.”
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) announced her retirement earlier this month, setting up a potentially crowded Democratic primary to replace her and making it easier for Republicans to secure the seat.
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) announced last week that he will seek re-election, and Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Illinois) said he is the No. 2 Democrat in the House, a loose Democrat. Take a breath. Worried that he will retire. “I’m glad he’s on board, he’s a great senator,” he said.
Ten of the senators caucusing with Democrats up for re-election in two years are over 70, including Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), 89, she told CNN, she will decide whether to run for office again in the next few months. Senator Bernie Sanders, 81, an independent, said he would announce his future “in due course.”
Among Democrats, Sen. Tammy Baldwin has yet to formally announce her plans, but told a local news station in December that she is “widely expected” to run again in Wisconsin. In Nevada, Senator Jacky Rosen is also expected to make another bid. In Pennsylvania, however, Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr., who is battling prostate cancer, said he was focused only on it until he made a final decision in 2024. “I just want to get through it,” he said on Monday.
Senator Ben Cardin, 79, said he has not yet decided whether to run again in Maryland, while a spokesman for Senator Angus King, a 78-year-old independent, There are caucuses with Democrats, and he answered questions about whether he would run for re-election. Links to local news reports saying he was preparing for a campaign.
Brown said he didn’t believe a group of Democrats would walk away even if Manchin or Tester decided not to run. “What happened to the Republicans last time was a bit of a domino effect — [former senators] Toomey and Portman and North Carolina and Missouri,” he said. “I don’t think that’s going to happen this time, I’m not worried at all. “
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the incoming chairman of the Republican Senate campaign committee, said he believes Republicans can make a serious run against Tester even if he doesn’t resign.
“If he decides to run again, it will be a real contrast,” he said, citing inflation, energy and the Second Amendment. National Republicans believe Rep. Matthew Rosendale (R-Mont.), whom Tester defeated in 2018, and Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), are both eyeing the seat, even though neither announced his intention to run for the seat.
While far fewer incumbents are running for re-election among Republicans, Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) is one of them to say Monday that he has not yet made up his mind to run for his seat. Romney, 75, could face a tough Republican primary given his public break with Trump. The retirement of Sen. Mike Braun could also throw the Republican primary into chaos in the red state of Indiana, where Rep. Jim Banks has announced he will seek the seat and the more authoritative former Gov. Mitch Daniels is also considering stepping in. Opposition from conservative critics, including Donald Trump Jr.
Perhaps the most confusing situation for Democrats in 2024 is how to handle the race in Arizona, where Sinema, independent but caucused with them, is up for re-election but already faces a challenge from Gallego, a Democrat. If Sinema decides to run again, it would set off a three-way contest that could boost the Republican nominee. She is the key vote for Democrats’ narrow majority to confirm Biden’s presidential nomination and other issues.
Peters said it was too early to discuss whether the National Party establishment would back Sinema, and had not spoken to her about whether she planned to run again.
Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) called Sinema an “excellent” senator but didn’t pledge his support. “She’s done a lot of good here, but it’s too early,” he said.
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who seemed to enjoy the drama, praised Sinema and said he looked forward to seeing how Democrats would answer questions about whether to support her.
“It’s a big dilemma for the Senate Democratic majority to decide whether to support her or the Democratic candidate,” he told reporters with a laugh. “I’m sure you’ve asked a bunch of questions along these lines before we got here. I look forward to reading the answers you get, if any.”
