Americans viewed the uproar over the classified documents in two ways. One is about intent: Was the paper simply misfiled or was there a deeper culpability? The other is to view any intentional or inadvertent breach of a classified documents agreement as a serious threat to U.S. national security, no matter who does it and what it does.
The first view concludes that political careers should not end and people should not be sent to prison because classified documents are kept in private places by elected officials who once had legal access to them. The solution, they say, is to pick up the pieces and tighten the rules.
If there is a deeper level of guilt, such as selling secrets or handing over documents to foreign countries, that is another matter.
The second view is stronger. It insists that storing classified documents is a big deal, underpinning strict federal laws on the subject. When a country’s top leader mishandles top secret information — information that could kill people or start a war — there needs to be a full investigation and prosecution, no matter who is responsible.
As former Republican congressman and former CIA employee Will Hurd put it, “Classified information includes much more than the actual ‘secrets’ obtained. It includes how they were obtained and the process by which they were analyzed.” Every nation with complex global relationships with numerous friends and enemies has an undeniable interest in classified information.
Cases involving classified documents are complex. Politics makes them incredibly tricky. That has created uncertainty for two U.S. presidents, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, as well as for former Vice President Mike Pence, who could be next year’s presidential nominee.
This column does not attempt to analyze the complexities of law or national security policy; there are other forums better suited for such analysis. Here, we assess public opinion and political influence.
Biden’s mishandling of the document deprived Democrats of an issue they could have used against Trump. It has also left some Democrats secretly hoping that Biden has reached a tipping point that could prevent him from running again. Many Democrats would rather their party nominate a younger candidate without a half-century of political trauma.
For Trump and many of his supporters, the docs case is just another investigation, persecution and contrived controversy. While this could become a serious legal issue for him, including a host of possible transgressions, the political picture is less clear now that Biden is also in hot water.
To gauge the initial impact of these cases, let’s look at the polls.
Before publicly announcing for the first time that he was storing classified documents in his private office, Biden’s personal rating was 49 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable. The Economist/YouGov poll comes at a good time for Biden; Democrats beat expectations in midterms, inflation is moderating, while Republicans are divided in the House speaker race .
But two weeks later, after more documents were found, Biden’s approval rating dropped 5 points (to 44%), while his unfavorable rating rose 4 points (to 53%).
Before the FBI executed the search warrant on Mar-a-Lago, Trump had a personal rating of 41 percent positive and 55 percent negative. Two weeks later, his favorable ratings had slipped one point (to 40%), while his negative ones had jumped two points (to 57%).
The latest CNN poll shows that 44% of voters nationwide approve of Biden’s handling of the document issue, while 56% disapprove. By party affiliation: 74 percent of Democrats, 38 percent of independents and 15 percent in favor. Additionally, 66 percent of voters said Biden’s mishandling of the situation was “very serious” or “somewhat serious.”
Also, judging by a recent CNN poll, 36% said Biden did something “illegal” and another 45% said he did something “immoral but not illegal.” In contrast, 54 percent thought Trump did something “illegal,” and another 31 percent said it was “immoral but not illegal.”
As cases related to the mishandling of classified documents come to light, one thing is certain: This is a jungle no one wants to enter, especially if they are running for president next year.
Ron Faucheux is a Louisiana-based nonpartisan political analyst, pollster and author. He publishes LunchtimePolitics.com, a national newsletter about polls and public opinion.
